Pre-tourney Rankings
St. Mary's
West Coast
2012-13
Overall
Predictive Rating+12.8#23
Expected Predictive Rating+13.0#25
Pace64.7#233
Improvement+3.0#58

Offense
Total Offense+10.0#9
Improvement-1.5#234

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#95
Improvement+4.5#14
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0.0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0.2% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 4.2% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.6% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.6% n/a n/a
Average Seed 9.3 n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.9% n/a n/a
First Round83.1% n/a n/a
Second Round43.9% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen16.6% n/a n/a
Elite Eight7.1% n/a n/a
Final Four2.6% n/a n/a
Championship Game0.9% n/a n/a
National Champion0.4% n/a n/a

Projected Seeding 10 seed  


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2012 116   @ Utah St. W 67-58 72%     1 - 0 +15.7 +3.0 +13.9
  Nov 18, 2012 300   Eastern Washington W 85-66 98%     2 - 0 +6.6 +4.7 +1.7
  Nov 22, 2012 174   Drexel W 76-64 89%     3 - 0 +11.5 +9.5 +2.9
  Nov 23, 2012 115   Pacific L 66-76 81%     3 - 1 -6.5 -1.2 -6.2
  Nov 25, 2012 102   Georgia Tech L 56-65 78%     3 - 2 -4.4 -8.8 +4.1
  Dec 01, 2012 132   Cal Poly W 86-68 90%     4 - 2 +17.1 +32.2 -10.5
  Dec 05, 2012 118   @ Drake W 88-73 73%     5 - 2 +21.5 +11.7 +9.0
  Dec 11, 2012 319   Jackson St. W 120-67 99%     6 - 2 +39.0 +28.4 +5.6
  Dec 19, 2012 115   Pacific W 74-46 88%     7 - 2 +28.3 +8.8 +22.9
  Dec 23, 2012 64   @ Northern Iowa L 75-82 57%     7 - 3 +4.0 +4.7 -0.3
  Dec 27, 2012 185   Rhode Island W 82-59 93%     8 - 3 +18.8 +13.8 +6.6
  Dec 30, 2012 188   Yale W 78-62 94%     9 - 3 +11.6 +2.3 +9.4
  Dec 31, 2012 108   Harvard W 70-69 87%     10 - 3 +1.9 +5.2 -3.1
  Jan 05, 2013 207   Loyola Marymount W 74-61 95%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +7.5 +6.6 +2.0
  Jan 10, 2013 4   @ Gonzaga L 78-83 18%     11 - 4 1 - 1 +17.5 +15.6 +1.8
  Jan 12, 2013 136   San Francisco W 78-72 90%     12 - 4 2 - 1 +4.8 +11.5 -5.9
  Jan 16, 2013 62   @ BYU W 70-69 56%     13 - 4 3 - 1 +12.2 +8.9 +3.5
  Jan 19, 2013 253   @ Portland W 60-38 91%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +19.9 -9.9 +30.5
  Jan 24, 2013 162   San Diego W 81-48 92%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +29.9 +15.4 +18.3
  Jan 26, 2013 218   Pepperdine W 84-72 95%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +5.6 +15.9 -9.3
  Jan 30, 2013 136   @ San Francisco W 67-63 76%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +9.3 -0.7 +10.3
  Feb 02, 2013 253   Portland W 77-42 97%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +26.4 +4.7 +22.9
  Feb 07, 2013 81   @ Santa Clara W 84-63 64%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +30.0 +21.6 +10.4
  Feb 09, 2013 162   @ San Diego W 74-64 81%     20 - 4 10 - 1 +13.4 +5.7 +8.1
  Feb 14, 2013 4   Gonzaga L 60-77 38%     20 - 5 10 - 2 -1.0 +1.4 -4.7
  Feb 16, 2013 207   @ Loyola Marymount W 61-50 86%     21 - 5 11 - 2 +11.9 -7.8 +20.1
  Feb 21, 2013 62   BYU W 64-57 78%     22 - 5 12 - 2 +11.8 +5.9 +7.2
  Feb 23, 2013 15   Creighton W 74-66 56%     23 - 5 +19.3 +11.0 +9.2
  Feb 27, 2013 218   @ Pepperdine W 87-48 88%     24 - 5 13 - 2 +39.1 +20.6 +20.8
  Mar 02, 2013 81   Santa Clara W 80-67 83%     25 - 5 14 - 2 +15.5 +9.4 +6.6
  Mar 09, 2013 162   San Diego W 69-66 OT 88%     26 - 5 +3.2 -1.4 +4.7
  Mar 11, 2013 4   Gonzaga L 51-65 27%     26 - 6 +5.3 -4.3 +6.8
Projected Record 26.0 - 6.0 14.0 - 2.0




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 100.0 100.0 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2 0.0%
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2 100.0% 86.6% 86.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 10.0 15.0 16.4 14.5 16.4 9.8 0.1 13.4 86.6%
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 86.6% 0.0% 86.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.8 10.0 15.0 16.4 14.5 16.4 9.8 0.1 13.4 86.6%